M. Ninyerola, X. Pons i J. M. Roure. Atles climàtic digital de la península Ibèrica i idoneïtat d’espècies arbòries: anàlisi dels efectes d’un possible canvi climàtic
L'Atzavara, 15: 57-62

Digital climatic atlas of the Iberian Peninsula and suitability of arborescent species: analysis of the effects of a possible climatic change

In this study, we applied cartographic GIS modeling techniques with the purpose of delimiting and analyzing the effects of climatic change on the distribution of vegetation in the Iberian Peninsula. First, the methodology used to develop the climatic cartography is briefly described. These climatic maps, together with current distribution of vegetation, were an input to define the ecological niche of the vegetal species. This cartography was also used to map this information into vegetation suitability surfaces at the current climate scenario. We applied soil information and objective knowledge to refine these suitability maps. Secondly, we elaborated a new scenario of climatic change by means of modifying the current climatic cartography using the IPCC predictions. Previously defined ecological niche was mapped on this simulated climatic situation to determine the effects of climate on the species distribution. Objective knowledge of the ecological niche of the species was applied to this scenario of climatic change. Finally, we analyzed the potential effects of the simulated climatic change on the distribution of different Quercus oaks (Quercus humilis and Quercus petraea-Quercus robur complex) in the Park of the Montnegre and the Corredor (NE Spain) from a spatial point of view.

I PDF I contents I